In his article “1,200 is More Than 6“, Dr. Howard wrote that “Some of us want zero children to die because they weren’t vaccinated.” Well, he’s entitled to his opinion, of course, but we should recognize this statement for what it is- his opinion. Reasonable people can disagree with it, and I certainly do.  I don’t want zero children to die of a vaccine-preventable disease. As long as fewer children die from COVID-19 than older people, I’m fine with it.

Dr. Howard further argued that “When it comes to dead children, 1,200 is much larger than 6.” I disagree with this too, and instead stand with with doctors who recently wrote that “For the unvaccinated child, COVID presents a health risk to children that is on par with the flu.”

Let’s look at the numbers to understand why they’re right and Dr. Howard is wrong. Since the start of the pandemic, over 1,200 children died of COVID-19 while 6 children died of the flu.

At first glance, you may not think that 1,200 equals 6. This is because you are guilty of groupthink and tribalism. Don’t worry, you are not alone. This is true of most doctors who actually have real-world responsibility for treating sick children. Unlike doctors who work in pediatric ICUs, I have a more nuanced, centrist, alt-middle approach, which is why you should pay money to read my thoughts on Substack.

Imagine, for example, that you won $75,000,000 in a lottery. You’d be pretty happy, right? Would you be any happier if you won an extra $1,200?  Would you feel that differently if you won $75,001,200 instead of $75,000,000? Of course not. $1,200 would a drop of water in your ocean of cash. You wouldn’t even notice it.

Well, it so happens there are 75,000,000 million children in the USA, and 74,998,800 of them haven’t died of COVID-19. With this added context, it’s clear that 1,200 dead children is not really that different than 6 dead children.

And if two numbers aren’t that different, aren’t they basically the same?

Author

  • Dr. Jonathan Howard is a neurologist and psychiatrist based in New York City who has been interested in vaccines since long before COVID-19.

Posted by Jonathan Howard

Dr. Jonathan Howard is a neurologist and psychiatrist based in New York City who has been interested in vaccines since long before COVID-19.