The Frequently Asked Questions section of the Great Barrington Declaration predictably laments measures to control COVID. In response to one question it said,

At the end of 2020, governments around the world, including many states in the US, continue to restrict normal activities, and some are introducing additional lockdown restrictions. Many schools remain closed to regular in-person teaching, while many businesses, concert halls, and churches are closed or only permitted to operate at partial capacity. Lockdown remains a primary tool used by many governments to address the pandemic.

That was true at the end of 2020.

Now that 2022 is nearly halfway done, I have some further questions for the authors of the Great Barrington Declaration. Specifically, I am curious about the following from their website:

For how long must high-risk individuals be careful and/or self-isolate?

When herd immunity is reached, they can live normally again with minimal risks. How long that takes depends on the strategy used. If age-wide lockdown measures are used to try and suppress the disease, it could take a year or two or three, making it very difficult for older people to protect themselves for that long. If focused protection is used, it will likely only take 3 to 6 months.

They wrote “Herd immunity occurs when enough people have immunity so that most infected people cannot find new uninfected people to infect, leading to the end of the epidemic/pandemic”.

That sounds great. I’d love for the pandemic to end this fall. Here are my questions:

  • If focused protection were to be perfectly implemented today, do you still believe we’d have herd immunity in 3 to 6 months?
  • If yes, what current government restrictions must end so that we can reach herd immunity in this time frame? Be specific.
  • If no, why haven’t you updated your website? What is your current estimate for how long must high-risk individuals be careful and/or self-isolate? How did you arrive at this number?
  • If you think we’ve reached herd immunity, could you please write an article with that title and stop talking about COVID?

And if these questions can’t be answered, is anything about the Great Barrington Declaration even remotely relevant today?

I know the answer.

Author

  • Dr. Jonathan Howard is a neurologist and psychiatrist based in New York City who has been interested in vaccines since long before COVID-19.

Posted by Jonathan Howard

Dr. Jonathan Howard is a neurologist and psychiatrist based in New York City who has been interested in vaccines since long before COVID-19.