Was COVID cooked up in a lab? Do “they” have a cure for cancer and are hiding it from the public? Do pharmaceutical companies make up diseases to market otherwise failed drugs? Did insurance companies scheme with infectious disease professional organizations to suppress treatments for chronic Lyme disease? Did the supplement industry lobby congress to weaken regulations of their own products?
OK, that last one is real, but the others are all examples of grand conspiracy theories involving health care. Conspiracy theories, of course, are not unique to health and medicine, they are common and on the rise in our society. Increasingly, however, health care professionals and organizations have to deal with the conspiracy phenomenon, which can directly impact both patient care and public health.
Conspiracy theories are also nothing new. They have certainly been amplified by social media – only minutes after the failed assassination attempt on Trump, various conspiracies were exploding on social media – but they long predate modern mass media.
What Are Conspiracy Theories?
Conspiracies, of course, are real and happen. Whenever two or more people get together and conspire to commit a crime, deception, or something nefarious, that is a conspiracy. But when we refer to a “conspiracy theory” that is short hand for a grand conspiracy, something involving massive scope in terms of people, time, and organizations.
The structure of a grand conspiracy theory generally involves one or more shadowy groups who have secret and expansive power. This group secretly uses their power to control some aspect of our world for their own benefit. The conspiracy often involves victims, which may be everyone. Typically the conspirators have incredible reach and power, in order to be able to pull off the conspiracy. And yet they also tend to make dumb mistakes, which is how the conspiracy theories can see the truth of what is happening. Everyone else are “sheeple” who are blind to the hidden truth of the conspiracy.
Why are conspiracy theories so compelling to so many? That is a question psychologists have been asking for decades, and they have a current partial answer. Research has shown that many people are simply opportunistic conspiracy theorists – they latch onto a single or a few conspiracies that seem to support their ideology, cultural tribe, or world-view. If, for example, you sell or promote some “alternative” medicine, the Big Pharma conspiracy theory is convenient. Why is your blatant pseudoscientific nonsense rejected by mainstream scientific organizations? There must be a conspiracy of silence and suppression.
A subset of the population, however, are all-purpose conspiracy theorists, endorsing many conspiracy theories across the ideological spectrum. These individuals tend to have more intuitive rather than analytical thinking styles, and some combination of enhanced pattern recognition and anemic reality testing.
Conspiracy thinking, however, is not unique to these predisposed individuals. Rather, conspiracy thinking seems to be a near universal programming flaw in the human brain. Humans are wired for “hyperactive pattern recognition” – we see patterns everywhere. But then our brains are supposed to filter out the patterns that don’t make sense. This can be a complicated process, however, and humans are only semi-rational beings, subject to a host of biases, flawed heuristics, and emotional influences. It only takes a bit of motivated reasoning, subjective validation, and confirmation bias to convince ourselves that even strange beliefs may be true.
Conspiracies are a special subset of false beliefs that are designed for self-reinforcement and insulation from refutation. Any bit of evidence for a conspiracy that is missing was suppressed by the conspirators. Any evidence that contradicts the conspiracy is a “false flag” operation. Anyone who refutes the conspiracy is obviously part of the conspiracy, or a paid shill. Once these logical barriers have been erected, there is no way out of the conspiracy theory. Then we can fully engage our pattern recognition powers to see connections everywhere, reinforcing the core conspiracy belief.
Another aspect of the grand conspiracy phenomenon is that they tend to enlarge over time, almost by necessity. Why hasn’t the media blown the whistle on 9/11, or the hidden cancer cure? Well, they must be in on the conspiracy. How could one pharmaceutical company control all the research that would underpin a cancer cure? All pharmaceutical companies must be working together, and they control all universities, all researchers, professional organizations, and regulatory agencies. And this conspiracy is international, involving every developed country in the world. Nothing short of that could possibly keep a lid on all of the scientific knowledge and research that would lead to something as powerful as a cure for cancer.
How do we defend ourselves from falling into the conspiracy trap?
First, be aware of the structure of grand conspiracy theories and look out for them. Don’t dismiss evidence as false simply because it contradicts your belief. Don’t dismiss the lack of evidence either.
Do not make “they” statements. The vague reference to “they” whitewashes many of the logical and empirical flaws of conspiracy theories. Who, exactly, are “they”, how do they operate, how could they pull off the alleged conspiracy? “They” is also used to conflate the actions of one person or one entity with a larger social group. It assumes collaboration and coordination. In one word, it basically assumes and avers a conspiracy.
A basic rule of critical thinking that applies beyond just conspiracy theories is to deliberately think of all the reasons why your belief is implausible or wrong. Don’t just look for support (we are good at making apparent connections and finding support for what we want to believe). Try to disprove yourself.
Grand conspiracy theories rapidly collapse under their own weight. The more you think about the logistics of the conspiracy, the bigger they have to become, until before long you are claiming there is a worldwide secrete government of alien reptiles from another dimension. Even without the alien reptiles, grand conspiracy theories are incredibly implausible.
Don’t fill in the blanks of your own ignorance about how a complex system works with simplistic conspiracy theories. This comes from the humility aspect of critical thinking. The world is incredibly complex, and no one has detailed knowledge of every profession, every institution, and every subculture. If you are not involved with the world of medicine, you may not understand how it works. It’s a giant black box. Don’t assume that anything can happen inside that black box, that it is monolithic, that everything that comes out of it is deliberate and nefarious. You can also ask actual experts to fill in some blanks, or if something you heard about online is plausible.
Finally, don’t spread conspiracy theories, online or elsewhere. Part of the appeal of conspiracy theories is that they can make people feel smart and clever, that they have seen the man behind the curtain, and are not among the “sheeple”. It also can give us a sense of understanding and therefore the illusion of control. Or a specific conspiracy theory can reinforce our existing belief systems and enhance our connections to our social group. This is a powerful motivation to want to spread these beliefs.
Don’t do it. Think about it first. Try to disprove your own theory. Check with those who may have more information.
I will also note that grand conspiracy theories historically have a terrible track record. So at least consider the probability that if you endorse a grand conspiracy, you are overwhelmingly likely to be wrong.
Conspiracy Medicine